Wednesday, January 9, 2008

New Hampshire's inaccurate polls spur election fraud allegations.... Hillary couldn't REALLY beat Obama, could she?

Hillary beat Obama even though the polls predicted otherwise. Fraud? No. Poll inaccuracy? Yes. Why? Here's the John Brown Explanation:

Obama was kicking ass in the polls. Hillary was a tearful mess. Facing the inevitable Obama Victory with a capital "V", she was flailing in desperation. She was gonna call in Carville. She was firing everyone. Bill was steaming. Insiders said she was trying to decide when to surrender the whole damn race, leaving Mr. Obama only the formality of beating down John "Mad Dog of the People" Edwards on his way to two consecutive terms of Camelot II.

That's when they decided to actually have the people in New Hampshire vote. Early results showed Clinton with a slight edge over Obama. The TV people didn't even really seem to notice. They kept wondering aloud how big the eventual Obama margin of victory would be. Eventually, they noted that it was closer than anticipated, but they still seemed pretty convinced that the O-Man would prevail.

He didn't. The polls were wrong.

Hillary won.

At least that's what I thought until I started to read all the people who claimed polls couldn't be THAT wrong. Obviously, something wasn't kosher in New Hampshire (which really isn't surprising considering their love of shellfish-based recipes).

Election fraud in New Hampshire, they say. The evidence? Well, there's one interesting story about percentages and the use of the Diebold Devil Machine. There's also a family of Ron Paul-backers who claim that nefarious forces didn't tally their votes. Someone just can't believe people won't vote for Dennis Kucinich and his hot wife. Otherwise, the reason why people seem to think there was fraud boils down to one thing... The polls were so fucking wrong.

If you don't happen to be one of the more conspiratorial among us and have your doubts about election fraud, join the club. Sitting fears of electioneering aside, however, it is rather interesting to look at why those polls might have been off by so much.

Hillary beat Obama even though the polls predicted otherwise. Fraud? No. Poll inaccuracy? Yes. Why? Here's the John Brown Explanation:

The undecided factor. Something like one in five of all potential dem. primary voters self-described as "undecided" even in very recent polls. They just so happened to decide to side with HRC when it came time to pull the levers.

The name placement factor. This might sound ass-crazy, but I read an interesting observation about the placement of names on the New Hampshire ballot. Apparently, Hillary got lucky. Her name appeared in the top slot. Some say that placement might be worth 3%. Enough to turn the Obama loss into a win, you know.

The limitations of polling. Mystery Pollster has an interesting run-down of the reasons exit polls suffer from inaccuracy. Some of those factors apply to more predictive polling, too. Gary Langer puts into New Hampshire-specific terms:

"In the end there may be no smoking gun. Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known. They may have been inaccurate because of bad modeling, compromised sampling, or simply an overabundance of enthusiasm for Obama on the heels of his Iowa victory that led his would-be supporters to overstate their propensity to turn out. (A function, perhaps, of youth.)"

Every race is unique and poses its own particular challenges to the measurers of opinion. Janet Elder makes that argument with respect to New Hampshire:

"What is more likely is that New Hampshire voters’ opinions were very much in flux, with voters buffeted by the intense media coverage until the moment they finally stepped into the voting booth and registered what pollsters call “considered opinion,” the kind of opinion born of reflection rather than one elicited in an instant by a poll taker."

The empirical inaccuracy of polling. Check out this little study. It evaluated poll data and compared it to real results for a couple of California elections. You'll notice that polls often under- or overestimate candidate popularity outside of the usually anticipated margin of error. Mystery Pollster has another cool post that shows how past polls in national elections have been FUBAR. Political Arithmetik has a groovy graph that shows how polls tend to be pretty damn accurate in close races (assuming two candidates, but still...), but also notes that "More practically, it means that polls rarely miss the winner with a 10 point lead, but they DO miss it 10% of the time."

Here is a lesson in reason and good political sportsmanship, Obama-backers... Don't blame Hillary's evil minions for rigging the New Hampshire primary. She didn't. She just picked up more votes. If you felt let down after some poll-inspired overconfidence and need to be pissed with someone, look in the mirror.

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23 comments:

  1. Great links, John. Fascinating discussion. It's so refreshing to see an intelligent discussion about polling and elections that doesn't rationalize horseracing and just as an independent discussion of polling and how it does or does not accurately reflect a political, cultural, or otherwise reality.

    The internet is really fucking incredible for challenging any foolish notion that any of us might have that we uniquely have more right answers than we do because it becomes so overwhelmingly apparent just how much so many people know and have to contribute to our understanding of politics and the world, right at our fingertips. I have always thought and this rreconfirms that notion that internet communication is a more effective means than an also important and independently useful and necessary means of facilitating democratic discussion and understanding - face-to-face dialogues facilitated by groups committed to dialogue and citizen engagement, an effort that I whole-heartedly support as an important means of engaging citizens, especially those how may feel like noone is otherwise interested in what they have to say and where talking may be more comfortable to them than writing or other means of communicating their concerns or where they might not be taken seriously, otherwise, and a million other advantages to face-to-face dialogue. I just think the internet offers more opportunities for intelligent people to inform and be informed and to humble one another's notions of more omniscience than any of us have or could have. It is humility at our fingertips, if we would take advantage of that opportunity. And I love it. And this is such a terrific example, John.

    Thanks for the links. I am fascinated by this discussion, now. I will be following the art and science of polling more carefully. Thanks.

    What I need, now, is for Ms. Clinton to earn those poll results and stop condescending her fellow adults in the world, both legislating and leveraging her way over my life. I do not need Hillary Clinton running rough-shot over my life or the lives of any of my fellow citizens, thank you very fucking much. And if she wants those poll numbers to mean something and not just be another empty expression of the masses of dumbasses in the world temporarily taking her side - say, like the election of George Bush, for example - she better start earning those poll numbers and take real liberal values, meaning liberty, seriously. Otherwise, she's just another blip on a long and winding, but undoubtedly liberal - meaning liberty-loving - road, long-term. And if she doubts that, I suggest she read more history and put aside those polls for just a bit.

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    1. Underwear Shitty-wash Washington-June 13, 2015 at 8:29 AM

      Politics; unusual. Don't reveal my name. Do remember the same men following Dave around. Was Dave mental? Abit "off ". Talked about his fascination with England & its Italian heritage. referred to London as "Londinium". Said something about Delmonaco steak. I don't even know if I am spelling it correctly. I remember the discussion because we were being video-recorded. I was sent a copy. I do not know why we were being recorded. Its as if they knew something was going to happen. That's just the feeling I got.We cannot let this person go because there is no closure. No closure FOR ANY of the strange events (the ESA/Madonna assasinations, SB 42, Newtown and more...a lot more). Can't seem to get over any of it.

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  2. never mind, just a white male Republican admiring yourJune 13, 2015 at 10:03 AM

    David Roy's subconscious art.That alone. It reminds me of the microscopic art exhibit I attended years back in Manhattan. Same concept. It will always be a source of fascination and bewilderment. Its a compliment, Dave (in case you are reading this). Your art can tangle emotions and continue to pull me in like a magnet. But I can actually climb out of it and say; " this is insane. What a ride".

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    1. You forgot the part where "Steak Diane" & Gia were discussing Swatch watches, laser discs (Blade Runner), junk jewelry, Dave's love for the Reagan White House-and Thatcherism-and crazy 80's collectibles ! S/he looked like Pris. You can check out all of Pris' images on-line. Gia was ravaged by drug abuse. You could still get a sense of how intelligent she actually was. Her brain was fried. David's drug of choice was nicotine. I am a collector of all things David Roy Pescatore, the DRPart, anything having to do with this person. I have tried for years to start a web page dedicated to him/her, whatever. The underground element, the Jamie Moyer horse-cult following. Everyhing. Everything.

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  3. David was never influenced by Gia. Even bought her organic enemas for her to use to try & help her with the addiction. I have a great amount of respect for Dave. How a 23-year old was going up against two monsters ( drug addiction & AIDS) to help save a friend. When she died, Dave cried for days. So hurt. Could not believe certain people refused to attend the funeral. Did not understand how people could be that way. Claimed she was treated like an animal. I believe this was the tipping point. Not so much he was intersex, he went off the deep end emotionally because of Gia. Could not believe what he saw & the aftermath. Yes, I have my sources. No- I do not want to be sued.

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  4. His 24th birthday was not celebrated.

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    1. fan of the unique, one of a kind 1980'sJune 17, 2015 at 10:46 AM

      Dave 's makeup looked like Pris' makeup. It was exact. But Dave looked nothing like Pris. With all of that makeup on, who/what was s/he trying to hide from-him/herself? Crazy. I went to high school with Gia when she was at Lincoln. I also knew Dave's third cousin's wife. She was the prettiest girl back in the 80's & now she looks like...well, no words to describe her. Lets just say she doesn't age well. I hear Dave looks incredible. Now if only we can get her to answer. Its all in the genes, I guess (how u age). I'm one of the DRP followers who actually knew of this creature. I signed up on the super-secret site. But this is not working and I certainly would not want anyone posting intimate details about me on the internet. I post details about myself because I want that. You can't really force someone. Do I sound guilty?

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  5. No hexes, please. I just lost my brother and I mean well. ( ^ :

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  6. Forwhatever reason (threats, experiments, secret society participant, privacy, etc.) This person is not interested. Its been years (and years). Even his cousin's wife was secretive-but its just speculation. They're going about their lives and here we are stuck thinking about them.

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    1. Lisa says : cxl ur instagram accountJune 17, 2015 at 12:51 PM

      Looking forward to another (mostly) boring summer at the beach. Turning down the sound everytime I hear Mr. Obama or one of his working buddies speak. So irritating-just tune them out and live.

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    2. Pays to be an elementary school teacher .

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  7. ( : Thanks, 758340303097363785894594234829756496499464968495849483543958349584968496868949300274652849392716254784856969069698544653092564872619018340688

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  8. hey teacher its MikeJune 17, 2015 at 2:38 PM

    There used to be a Liberty Travel in the shopping centre. But I would encourage you to travel to Sub-Sahara Africa for the summer. Check out the Zulu Reed Dance Company 2012 clip 1 on You-Tube. Its an incredible dance tribute to African art and culture !

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  9. Mike - and I'm Welsh not IrishJune 17, 2015 at 2:48 PM

    Reminds me of a football game. There's a definite cultural link from Africa to America.

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  10. plain american housewifeJune 18, 2015 at 2:27 PM

    America is number 2. Trump is right. I am living my life, minding my own business with one eye on Washington. You cannot afford to let your guard down. Am I more afraid of witches than Uncle Sam? I cannot answer that. If given the opportunity I would ask those at the top why are you killing taxpayers-on American soil and abroad. Would you like it if it were your son or daughter murdered in cold blood? What would your reaction be? They use terms like "open".You mean breaking the law. Mass-murder. Does not matter if one person was involved or a hundred. Your all guilty. You don't negotiate with terrorists-you put them in jail. All we ask is for you to stop breaking the law, do your jobs. Not all jobs need to be considered classified, either. Its being used as an excuse to make back room deals.

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  11. plain american housewifeJune 18, 2015 at 2:42 PM

    Mrs. Bush tells the media there are plenty of other nice people to run for president. I agree! You got big ones! Your husband was a terrible president. I can remember X-Mas '91-stores were empty...begging for customers. Your druggie son was even worse. Good governor? Does not mean you will become an effective president. But what really took the cake she actually believes her family is a nice family. No, Mrs. Bush-your not nice people. Do not bring religion into it, either. You know what you are. ( ^ : @

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  12. America do not vote for Bush-don't do it-if you do-you'll end up no. 3June 18, 2015 at 2:53 PM

    When David Roy was in the hospital with an IV in his arm and tests were being conducted he brought up ) ^ : \ America is no. 2 why?

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  13. save the free worldJune 18, 2015 at 3:06 PM

    Bush family- SECURITY RISK ! Don't do it - your all targeted- randomly or otherwise. Do not vote for anymore Bushes. Security risk. More than any other group , they weakened our democracy.

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  14. go to jail you ugly disgusting shit stained niggerJune 18, 2015 at 3:10 PM

    Do not vote for anymore gay niggers with stretched-out assholes, either.

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  15. go to jail you ugly disgusting shit stained niggerJune 18, 2015 at 3:17 PM

    NIGGAH---ITS IN YO GENES TA COMMIT CRIME!!!

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    Replies
    1. Comments directed toward the gay Kenyan two-timer who invaded the White House. Instead of putting him away, they're cutting deals. They're covering it up-all those murders. What a nigger democracy ! It really is.

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  16. But its a family business !June 18, 2015 at 4:15 PM

    Do you know how many millions the government has spent on Bush security? Do you know how many millions they've made from the government?

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